US Open 2026 Opens Without Sinner: $548K of Whale Money Landed Before the First Ball, and a $17.7M Book Is on the Line

The last Grand Slam of 2026 started Sunday at Flushing Meadows with the biggest name in men’s tennis missing: world No.1 Jannik Sinner withdrew with a right knee injury, handing the top seed to Alexander Zverev and blowing the title market wide open. Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is here, seeded 2 — but he’s playing his first major since a right wrist injury took four months out of his season. Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka tops the women’s draw.

The whales’ answer to all that uncertainty: bet anyway. Before Day 1 had finished loading, our feed had captured 13 US Open tickets worth $548,763 — every one of them still pending as the first-round matches play out.

The Mensik triple: $250,000 riding an 18-year-old’s opener

The strangest cluster of the morning belongs to Jakub Mensik. Three separate monster parlays — $100,000, $75,000 and another $75,000 — all carry Mensik beating Shintaro Mochizuki at 1.09 as one leg of 18-to-24-leg accumulators with potential payouts up to $861,537. That’s $250,000 of whale money threaded through one first-round match, stacked inside parlays so long that a single upset anywhere torpedoes the lot. All three: pending.

The rest of the early board is game-total and handicap hunting: $75,000 on Over 8.5 first-set games in Faria–Brooksby, another $75,000 on the same market in Vukic–Sakamoto, and a Saturday pair totalling $60,000 on Coleman Wong — the qualifier drawn against 20th seed Tommy Paul — on the +7.5 game handicap and Over 31.5 total games. Whoever placed those believes Wong makes it competitive on Armstrong. Pending, pending, pending: we publish the grades when the graders do.

A $17.7M book with a losing record

The whales arrive at this US Open with history — and it isn’t pretty. All-time, our feed has tracked $11.46M across 364 tickets on the men’s singles (142 wins, 151 losses, 40 cash-outs) and $6.20M across 173 on the women’s (78–68 with 13 cash-outs). Together: 537 tickets, $17.66M wagered, and a men’s book that has settled more losers than winners. The hard-court warm-up swing told the opposite story — the Cincinnati whales went a perfect five-for-five on seven-figure tickets — so someone’s streak breaks over the next fortnight.

The market without Sinner

Prediction markets reacted to the draw fast: Alcaraz 26%, Zverev 20%, Djokovic 11% on the men’s side per Kalshi, with Sabalenka 24%, Gauff 16%, Swiatek 15% for the women — Gauff surging five points on draw day alone. Zverev, for his part, spent his pre-tournament press conference downplaying favorite status; four-time champion Djokovic, seeded 4, opens tonight against Mariano Navone in the Ashe night session, sharing the bill with Venus Williams vs Sofia Kenin.

The money at stake is historic on the official side too: a record $108M total purse, with $5.5M to each singles champion and $140K just for losing in round one — up 27% on last year.

What we’re watching

Fourteen days, 127 matches per draw, and a whale book that loves this event more every year. Whether the early money is on a Mensik parlay or a Wong handicap, it all lands in the same place: the tennis hub, the all-time board, and the live feed, where the Day 1 tickets will grade tonight. The Premier League’s $20M opening proved the whales don’t ease into anything — the US Open looks no different. Before you tail a fortnight of tennis, check the bonus board. 18+ · gamble responsibly.