US Open 2026: The Whales Warmed Up With Five Million-Dollar Wins

The US Open main draw starts Sunday 30 August at Flushing Meadows, and if the North American hard-court swing was the soundcheck, New York is getting a loud tournament. In the past two weeks the whale feed has tracked five separate tickets of $786,000 or more on ATP and WTA Cincinnati alone — and every one of them won. The tune-up events have been a printing press. The question is whether the same money shows up for the year’s last major, and on whom.

The warm-up ledger: five huge swings, five wins — and one $1.23M lesson

Cincinnati has been the whales’ playground. The headline ticket: $1,208,769 on Arthur Fils, which returned $1,569,829.87 — one of the largest tennis payouts this site has recorded. Behind it: $1,003,641 on Jakub Mensik paid $1,183,113.27, $1,000,000 on Aryna Sabalenka −1.5 sets paid $1,178,821.18, $896,108 on Rafael Jodar — the Spanish teenager who has been Cincinnati’s breakout story — squeaked home at razor-thin odds for $1,002,638.32, and $786,060 on Alex de Minaur paid $895,213.19.

Toronto is the counterweight. The single biggest tennis stake of the swing, $1,229,865 on Naomi Osaka at the National Bank Open, lost outright — still the largest tennis loss in our records. Short-odds singles on hard courts print until, abruptly, they don’t. Keep that ticket in mind every time a −150 favorite looks like free money in New York.

The boards: Sinner and Sabalenka, with asterisks

On the men’s side the books make Jannik Sinner the favorite at −150 (bet365, 19 August), with defending champion Carlos Alcaraz at +187 and Alexander Zverev a distant +800. But both of the top two arrive with question marks: Sinner withdrew from Cincinnati with right-knee discomfort and will land in New York without a competitive hard-court match this swing, while Alcaraz pulled out of Cincinnati managing a wrist problem as he aims to be fit to defend the title he won over Sinner in four sets last September.

On the women’s side Aryna Sabalenka opens at +225 chasing a third straight US Open — she is the first woman since Serena Williams to go back-to-back in New York — with Coco Gauff +700 and Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina at +800. The form lines favor the chasers: Swiatek just won the National Bank Open title over Rybakina, and Sabalenka’s price is built on a dominant hard-court year rather than a deep summer run. Ben Shelton is the men’s form pick nobody prices as one — he defended his Canadian Open title in Montreal for his fourth trophy of 2026.

One more New York storyline for the neutrals: Venus Williams, 46, has a wildcard, two decades and change after her first US Open final. The mixed doubles championship again runs during Fan Week (26–27 August) before singles begin.

What we’ll be watching

The pattern from every major this year — Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and now this swing — is that slam weeks concentrate the biggest tennis tickets of the season, and they cluster on short-odds favorites in the second week. If Cincinnati’s whales carry their bankrolls to New York, Sinner at −150 and Sabalenka at +225 are exactly the profile they hunt. Whether that ends like Fils or like Osaka is the tournament.

Main draw 30 August – 13 September; the women’s final is Saturday 12 September, the men’s Sunday 13 September. Every six-figure ticket gets tracked, graded and archived as it lands. If the warm-up ledger has you tempted to swing with them, at least check the bonus board first. 18+ · gamble responsibly.

Slips, odds and payouts on the live feed, plus every settled monster on the all-time board and the daily Top 5.